For me, Oscar picks have always been a balance between who I think deserves to win and who I want to win. There are several other factors that go into consideration when deciding who gets the Oscar outside of pure performance (like anything, there are Hollywood politics involved). The following are my picks for Best Picture, Best Actor in a Leading Role, Best Actress in a Leading Role, Best Actor in a Supporting Role, and Best Actress in a Supporting Role.

Best Picture
Nominees
“Amour”
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Django Unchained”
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Who I want to win: “Silver Linings Playbook.” The Best Picture category this year has an unprecedented nine nominees. If any one of them, except “Zero Dark Thirty” or “Lincoln” wins, it will be an upset. “Argo” has the best chance at an upset, but I’ll be rooting for “Silver Linings Playbook,” because of all the nominees, it was the most simply enjoyable one. It didn’t have the best script or the best effects, but the acting and directing made it a solid film and one that is really just fun to watch. And frankly, the characters were easier to relate to because of the modern setting. You were never lost due to your high school history knowledge falling short.

Who I think will win: “Lincoln.” Spielberg. Daniel Day-Lewis. Historical film. Everyone’s favorite president. If this one wins, no one will be surprised.

Best Actor in a Leading Role Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables”
Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”

Who I want to win: Hugh Jackman. After the first X-Men film, Jackman had the reputation as a meathead Australian to play Schwarzenegger-esque tough guy roles with few lines. However, he built a steady career, before and after X-Men, on Broadway. In Les Mis, the general public sees for the first time how versatile Wolverine really is. His Jean Valjean is brilliant, and he took the task of live-singing in stride. Hopefully this is the first of many more serious roles for Jackman, and hopefully he’ll get an Oscar at some point, if not this year. Plus, he’s just a really likeable guy.

Who I think will win: Daniel Day-Lewis. He’s already won two Oscars in this category, and this is his fifth nomination. His role as Lincoln is the best portrayal of the sixteenth president to hit the silver screen—it’s frightening how Day-Lewis’ identity is completely lost in the film, and how the audience sees Honest Abe come to life, straight out of a history book.

Best Actress in a Leading Role Nominees
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”
Quvenzhane Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”

Who I want to win: Jennifer Lawrence. At the young age of 22, Jennifer Lawrence is already up for her second Academy Award. In “Silver Linings Playbook,” she plays a guilt-ridden former sex addict opposite to Bradley Cooper, and the two of them really carry the film. Getting two noms in three years seems to foreshadow an Oscar to come at some point in her career (which is really still in its toddler years). In interviews, she carries herself as more of an average person than a Hollywood celeb with a warped view of the world. She’s genuine, and not afraid to be a little bit goofy.

Who I think will win: Jessica Chastain. With all of the hype and scandal, “Zero Dark Thirty” is unlikely to go home empty handed. Chastain’s performance as the CIA officer who led to the assassination of Osama Bin Laden is solid. The character is mostly cold and independent, but occasionally flashes strong emotion, and Chastain balances the contrast well.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role Nominees
Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Robert De Niro “Silver Linings Playbook”
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”
Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”

Who I want to win: Christoph Waltz. It’s a nearly identical situation to the one that won him an Oscar in 2009 for his role in “Inglorious Basterds.” The Tarantino-Waltz duo is incredible, and Waltz’s performance as a German doctor turned bounty hunter in “Django Unchained” is more of the same brilliance shown in “Basterds.” Despite having one Oscar to his name already, Waltz is the ironic underdog in this category just because of the names he’s up against.
Who I think will win: Christoph Waltz. (See above.)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role Nominees
Amy Adams, “The Master”

Sally Field, “Lincoln”

Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”

Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”

Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Who I want to win: Anne Hathaway. Her performance was breathtaking. While Les Mis had mixed reviews from audiences outside of the theater world, no one can say a bad thing about Anne Hathaway, even Hathaway haters (how someone can hate Anne Hathaway, I don’t know). She poured her heart into the role and her brilliant performance of the musical’s iconic song “I Dreamed a Dream” is heartbreakingly beautiful. Add that on top of the fact that all of the songs were sung live, the Queen of Genovia has a performance that can’t be beat.
Who I think will win: Anne Hathaway. Nothing against the other nominees, but if she doesn’t win this, I might not be able to watch the Academy Awards ever again out of principle.